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Outlook

Indian growth story is continuing with reasonable surety. Withdrawal of stimulus package can be easily compensated by some aggressive push on the reform side. Growth is the solution for most ills on inflation and deficit side. Unfortunately all the easy hanging fruits to pursue higher growth has already been taken out. Now there is a need for real action on the ground in terms of acceleration of projects, reduction in red-tapism and corruption etc. Global capital is willing to support capacity expansion, capital formation at very competitive and low rates. India has to seize the moment and our likely response will be in the usual style of two steps forward and one step backward. Clearly this will put pressure on economy as it swings from acceleration to deceleration. Stock markets will swing even more with additional influence from global markets.

The world with lots of liquidity and much less opportunity can provide huge capital to India for accelerating its growth over a longer term period. We believe India will move on the path of higher growth like Japan in the 70’s or South East Asian Nations in the 80’s or China in the 90’s. That augurs well for Indian equity markets in the long term.

However, markets usually like to discount or ignore all the factors swinging between greed and fear. Markets had run away a ted ahead of its fundamentals and gave a small correction last month. It will be futile to wait for such correction to invest into the market. We will recommend investors to ignore such volatility and focus on longer term outlook. The common sensical way of investing on a regular basis through systematic investment plan and asset allocation which will produce wonders for investors over longer term. We reiterate systematic investing and asset allocation as tools for meaningful wealth creation. We have a wide range of well performing funds and recommend these to investors.


Nilesh Shah
( Deputy Managing Director & Chief Investment Officer, ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd.)

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